Political activists, civil society organizations and the people yearning for real change are looking for the day of the demise of the TPLF/EPRDF brutal regime and the establishment of a transitional arrangement leading to a democratically elected government for the first time creating and enduring culture of transferring power through the ballot box. Unless and until the change of regime occurs it would be impossible to tackle divisive issues related to violation of human rights, atrocious moral decay within the country, and building of the GERD – which requires national consensus.
The TPLF/EPRDF is more in control today than it was in 2006 and continues to hold that power despite
the death of their central figure. It has become near to impossible to find any political space for the
development of a viable alternative to the TPLF/EPRDF because dissenters, activists or anyone
speaking for change will be put in jail. It has become a full-blown autocracy. Anyone who attempts to
speak up is silenced. All has been justified by saying that Ethiopia has double digit economic growth
and that they have met their millennium goals and that the people are too ignorant to understand how
they will eventually benefit; however, the people know that this is not balanced growth but instead has
“filled the pockets and bellies” of government supporters as laid out in the 1993 plan. Claims of
economic gains also serve to minimize or cover up the reality on the ground of the increased poverty of the majority. Supporters of the TPLF/EPRDF policies and tactics are rewarded while non-supporters are
penalized in a variety of ways. The most marginalized masses are ignored unless they become an
impediment to the TPLF/ERPDF plan of exploitation of land or natural resources. Here is an explanation
of that strategy from the original TPLF/ERPDF plan:
The combined strength of the State and Revolutionary Democracy’s economic institutions should
be used either to attract the support or to neutralize the opposition of the intelligentsia. We
should demonstrate to it that our economic strength could serve its interests, and, in the event of
its opposition to us, its belly and pocket could be made empty.
Examples of the practice of the above strategy are rampant. According to a Human Rights Watchii report,
following the 2010 election, even humanitarian aid was linked to party membership.
Record numbers of refugees are leaving the country, regardless of the risks, because so little
opportunity exists for the average person, let alone for more outspoken dissenters. Laws such as the
Charities and Societies Proclamationiii have literally closed down civil society, replacing institutions
with TPLF/ERPDF controlled look-alike organizations. A vague anti-terrorism lawiv has been used to
silence journalists, editors, democracy activists, religious leaders and opposition members by
intimidating them, arresting them or charging and imprisoning them as terrorists....
The TPLF/ERPDF has so effectively constructed a system of repression in Ethiopia that it will likely
carry on for awhile; however Meles, the driving force who charmed the west while terrorizing the people,
remains their main visionary leader. Billboards around Addis Ababa show his picture and the
TPLF/ERPDF continues to elevate his legacy, possibly because no one else within the party has been able
to articulate another, more timely or urgently-needed vision. This opens them up to new challenges from
the dissatisfied majority that they may not be able to dodge. Intraparty conflicts may also further
exacerbate the situation. Add to that pressure from the outside, like from Egypt, neighboring countries or
others and the situation may either explode or implode without reforms. Although the TPLF/EPRDF has
shown little openness to reforms, with enough pressure from the people and donors like the U.S., it
might create a win-win situation to bring about such reforms without violence, chaos and a spillover
effect in the Horn of Africa....
The road to democracy and respect for human rights in Ethiopia must be solved by Ethiopians....
This is a time when the U.S. should use their influence to put pressure on the Ethiopian government for
reforms rather than waiting for simmering tensions to explode. Support for a people-driven process is the
best alternative to bring lasting change to Ethiopia, more sustainable peace to the Horn and a better
ongoing partnership with the US.
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